Why I don't think there will be a Starfield 3

Got downvoted for this the other day but I am seeing comments and posts about the the follow up to the follow up of Starfield as if it’s inevitable.

However, I really don’t think there will ever be a sequel to the sequel of Starfield (Starfield 2)

To clarify: by sequel I mean a mainline BGS RPG in the Starfield Universe - a Starfield 2 + 1 if you will. I do think there is likely to be spinoff games though (an RTS game set in the colony wars that expands on the events of the Shattered Space DLC that is touted to release after the release of Starfield 1 would be a personal pick of mine) (I know this may look ridiculous but personally I don't think the Shattered Space DLC will go far enough in exploring Shattered Space, so expanding on it in Starfield 2 + 1 makes a lot of sense if you really think about it!)

Let’s also a look at the time frame:

Once BGS are done with the next two installments in the TES and Fallout franchises (which they have publicly committed to) you aren’t looking at a Starfield sequel until the early 2040s? TES 6 is likely to release around 2028-9 and then Fallout 5 let’s say around 2035-2036. So, assuming Starfield 1 + 1(2) does really well, we'd then have to wait for the NEXT two entries to the mainline BGS games. UNLESS Starfield establishes itself as a mainline BGS game that supercedes TES and Fallout. AND ONLY IF Starfield 1+1(2) lives up to the hype of its predecessor. Going by the timelines, Starfield 2 + 1 won't release till like late 2090's. And if Todd lives forever then who knows if he doesn't decide to just create a WHOLE NEW GAME like he did with Starfield [1] (the original one, not the sequel) So ultimately the game would need a seismic cultural impact potentially as one of the most beloved games of all time for interest in a sequel to be sustained for almost 60-70 years after the initial release of the original entry.

I’m not saying that Starfield 1 + 1 won’t be great or beloved but it’s unreasonable to expect that by that point in the future it will have maintained and fostered the cultural cache of TES and Fallout. Not only because those games would have had more recent instalments - but they also have several games already building out a franchise that are some of the most well known in gaming. Starfield 1 + 1 is going to be a good game but is it REALLY going to be good enough to allow the third entry to go ahead of TES+Fallout?????

What would that impact look like to warrant a sequel to the sequel ~50 years later?

Firstly on the business side of things the game would either need to sell tens of billions of copies (at least 10 billion if not more as that number would be much lower than Skyrim 7 and even FO5.5 + Fallout81) which is very unlikely as a consequence of Gamepass Core Ultimate Revised Edition and Xbox exclusivity. Or the game would need to be the most played Gamepass game by a wide margin. The best comparison I can find is Forza Horizon 8 which was the best launch week Gamepass game in player numbers at 10 trillion. So let’s say 12-14 billion opening and closer to 40 by the end of the Xbox Series 720 XS life cycle.

On the cultural side the game would need to be a lasting milestone on the level of Redfall in my opinion. I think the game will be great but you could count on your hand and toes the number of games that have done this.

Who know maybe the game will do all of these with ease and a follow up is obvious only a decade or two after release but I am sceptical. It just makes no sense for Microsoft or Bethesda to spend close to a century of dev time and resources on a game that will likely be less successful commercially than Elder Scrolls or Fallout or Redfall.

I guess what I want to get across is that we need to realise what a special game Starfield 2 + 1 will be. Not just because it expands on the space faring RPG we have all dreamed about for so long but also because a studio of this magnitude dedicating this amount of time and resources on a new idea will seldom happen again.

You could say the stars have aligned for this game.

I just hope they finally allow us to have vehicles on lands. I don't like the mods in Starfield 2(1+1)

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