(If you are reading this, this is just scratch paper. move along.)
If you want me to continue, please comment and let me know, but basically, I am not as bullishly optimistic as I was.
They aren't restricted from bidens sanction in china, they are releasing a new external GPU that undercuts AMD and Nvidia cards, and the Nvidia 40 series is a flop. Intels GPUs stay in their lane and, I was hoping, would be a way for businesses, schools, and casual gamers to have a price to power ratio that beats anything else on the market as demand for higher performance graphics cards become in demand with 1080, 720, streaming and home education, and telework. Also, because they are cheap and first gen, they aren't subject to the resale market of ex crypto mining cards flooding the market and bringing down the Nvidia and AMD cards.
Ethereum switching from proof of work to proof of stake has redeemed rigs obsolete. It will be so fucking hard for Nvidia and AMD to sell their new cards when cheaper used cards are so plentiful. Also, I see a lot of politicians and institutions buying up Intel. But there are problems. Thumbs tired. Maybe I'll make a DD, but damn I'm spent.
- Telework becoming the norm
- moore's law reaching. Gordon Moore was Intel Co-Founder.
- " As advanced semiconductors enable new levels of human achievement, the world’s need for compute exponentially increases at an inverse ratio of size to power "
- using chiplets, 3D stacking 3d STACKING https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMmCYqN6KSs&ab_channel=IntelNewsroom
Rebooting The Foundry... basically HUGE COST TO R&D
More foundry rebooting. rabbit hole bullshit.wafer manufacturing, packaging, software and an open chiplet ecosystem. Innovation once thought impossible has opened entirely new possibilities for chipmaking.
FEB 2022 INTEL BUYS TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR
What is a “Systems Foundry”?
There is a paradigm shift as the industry moves from system-on-chip to system-of-chips, requiring a unique set of capabilities that only Intel can bring to the table. Systems Foundry is an expansion of the traditional foundry model, driven by a combination of technological demands and supply chain economics. Our Open Systems Foundry approach incorporates the need to optimize everything from the system and software architecture to how we do manufacturing and test – from die construction to assembly rules, to verification and signoff, to our automated post-silicon verification and test flows.
4 PILLARS: Wafers, Packaging, Software , Chiplets
basically, it allows for the continuation of moore's law.
Pat Gelsinger is CEO of Intel.
Gelsinger: What he doesn't address in its LinkedIn article is how all this coexists with Intel recently saying it was going into an aggressive cost-cutting mode. We'll have to wait and see. "
All cards are ray-tracing.
| RANGE | CODE: ALCHEMIST | PRICE | TFLOPS | $/TFLOP | LAUNCH DATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | Arc A380 | $139 | 4.198 | 33.111 | Launched Aug |
| Mid-range | Arc A580 | $280 | 20.89 | 13.40 | Launched Aug/Sep |
| High-End | Arc A750 | $289 | 29.39 | 9.8332 | Launched Oct 12 |
| Higher-End | Arc A770 | $329 | 34.41 | 9.56117 | Launched Oct 12 |
Economy of scale
| CODE: BATTLEMAGE | ||
|---|---|---|
| CODE: CELESTIAL | ||
| CODE: DRUID |
ARC 5 AND ARC7 cards using 6nm transistor chip called Intel DG2-512:
Intels GPU launch isn't priced in, and they are trading waaaayyy below fair value, and we've reached 7-10nm chips and Moore's law has finally reached the barrier of physics, which is why Intel can jump in so late to the game and crush it. They've also got a new architecture releasing for processors based on this and it could be the last highly R&D design they need to do. Also, they are laying off 20k peeps. Bullish. Tech hardware for practical use (not enthusiasts) is about to plateau and Intel is the only one that can really scale up to responsibly fill the needs. The others need to throttle back on their performance to price and will suffer for it.
Bullish
Key Slides from Intel 13th Gen "Raptor Lake" Launch Presentation Leak
I wouldn't touch INTC before:
- Their new fabrication units are fully functional.
- They have caught up to fabrication process (world is on 3nm now, they are still stuck on 10nm?)
- They have better, cheaper offering than AMD in the server market. "Moore's law has reached the limits of Physics" is a popular thing that's repeated every few years (it been a thing for decades). We shouldn't buy into it for the nth time. Something always prove that claim to be wrong. If there is an architectural shift (which could be a really good thing for INTC), even then they need their fabrication ducks in the row.
As for GPU:
- The electronics and gaming console market has buy ins that run for years, INTC has no chance there in immediate future.
- They will have to prove themselves before they could even get foot in the door.
- The retail market for GPU is already down significantly because of crypto and whatnot.
- Unfortunately for INTC, as the saying goes, too little, too late.
- Besides, for it to even work, they have to mass produce their product for cheap. For that to happen, they have to get their fabrication units up and running. In the end, it will all boil down how fast they can get their fabrication units fully functional and close the fabrication process gap. Once that is done, we buy in.
Layoffs have been teased for months and are priced in. Guessing that they need all hands on deck to get the products launched on schedule. Then, they fire them.
_______________________________________________________________________
Bullish!
Intel is exempt from white house crackdown. AMD and Nvidia are not so lucky.
Intel Arc A380 Desktop Graphics Card Launched in China at $153 (equivalent)
processor: Intel Core i9-13900K Breaks Overclocking World Record at 8.8 GHz
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Intel Has Lost $3.5 Billion Through Its GPU Division Says Analyst (Aug 2022)
Bearish!
Looks like the lower end cards were pushed out too quick and they are too oversized physically for the performance. This is eluding that better cards are coming out soon. I thought Intel was going to take the smart route and not try and compete for high screaming graphics. I was hoping they would be the nintendo and let Nvidia and AMD be the Xbox/Playstion.
Bearish RECAP:
- Spent 3.5 Billion on R&D for Alchemist GPU's, which had a bad launch. Drivers were bad (still are). Underperforming. Open Source GitHub Repositorys are filling in the gap. SAD!
- (Tinfoil) Alchemist GPU's were rushed out to not affect the Battlemage. The bus sizing and chip sizing are oversized for the performance. I am guessing that that they use the same hardware platforms and then optimize with software later. Gives insight into what is to come.
- Original thesis of Intel staying in the mid-range is gone. Looks like they are going to try and box with the big boys AMD and NVIDIA. some fucking regard business major came up with this idea. Should have worked to maximize performance to price and not get into a dick measuring contest.
- Not Ready to compete yet.
- The company said then its consumer chip sales had shrunk by 25 percent while overall revenue declined 22 percent. The company actually lost half a billion dollars — a 109 percent reduction in profit compared to the $5.1 billion it made in Q2 2021. During the same earnings report, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger noted that the company would be “lowering core expenses in calendar year 2022 and will look to take additional actions in the second half of the year.”
Bullish recap:
- Layoffs? Apparently coming from the marketing and sales, but not verified. It was confirmed that the GPU R&D Section was not being impeded or halted. 20 percent of team members. This could be priced in though as they were scheduled to fire people in October, and the price has bounced since then. Could be a sell the news event.
- Putting in processes to continue Moore's law with different fabrication packaging. This could be considered neutral to market cap and stock price though since it is more R&D.
- Biden's chip restrictions don't affect Intel.
- Stock Price is super low because the R&D cost and launch failure. Numbers were so bad there were rumors that the GPU division was going to shutdown!
- Arc Alchemist series GPU is put together with injection molding and too fancy of a shell. prototype level. too expensive more mass production despite using glue and tape. Need to see if the Battlemage will have the same expensive process for it's packaging.
- Raptor-lake processor is supposed to blow every other processor out of the water.
Submitted by Slut_Spoiler | #Specialdealer Special Offer Online Shopping Store 2016
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